What goes up, must come down. Does such a concept apply to our booming manufacturing industries?
Our State of Manufacturing 2019 report sings a decidedly positive tune of growth and an influx of talented masses, but is there a plateau, or worse, a crash, in sight? We polled the experts from the report and the region for their personal predictions and conjectures for the year (and years) ahead.
Kevin Kimrey, Director, Economic & Workforce Development, A-B Tech Community College
C@P: What local manufacturing industries do you anticipate will continue to escalate and grow in 2019 and into the 2020s? Why?
KK: All local manufacturers would probably identify growth in 2019 and beyond because all of them are experiencing good or great product demand. I have talked to several that have identified the current administration’s tariff policies as “impactful” in various ways. So far, most have found ways to cope, but not all have confidence that coping will be sustainable. However, many local industries need a lot of people because of growth and demand within their respective industry sectors. In its composites business, GE Aviation predicts it will need to add over 200 new people in 2019 alone—far over its projections from a year ago. Currently, A-B Tech is scheduled to conduct composites post-hire training through its Customized Training Program project with GE every week through June. Linamar has new contracts with major automotive manufacturers and predicts that it will need to hire as many as 200 or more over the next three years. Reich is expanding and hiring new people every day. BorgWarner Turbo’s business is expanding (turbos are increasingly important for smaller, fuel efficient engines), and they are hiring at least 46 people over the next three years. The list goes on… All of our manufacturers are vibrant. And it’s not just Buncombe County—businesses in Madison, Henderson, and surrounding counties are thriving and growing. In the Spring of 2019, A-B Tech is adding a “Certified Production Technician” short-term (96-hour non-degree) training program to help feed a qualified pipeline of workers to satisfy these hiring needs.
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see grow in the near and far future? Why?
KK: Making products related to life sciences—food, beverage, and natural products—is big everywhere, but it’s especially big in our region. In many respects, our regional culture seems to cultivate entrepreneurs in this sector. We have so many smart and talented people who make a great hot sauce, or a wonderful soap, or a tasty plant-based food, or a fantastic beer, or an incredible kombucha, or a helpful supplement, or ETC., and it’s not just a pipe dream—it’s a great product that people love! We have so many resources that help these people—local community colleges, A-B Tech’s Small Business Center and Incubation Program, Blue Ridge Food Ventures, Biotechnology Center, BioNetwork, the community college system’s Customized Training Program—so they can take their dreams to reality. Recent examples (among many others) of these companies moving to the next “big boy” level: French Broad Chocolate Factory, Hi-Wire Brewing, Roots Hummus, No Evil Foods, Buchi Kombucha. All of these companies are adding jobs because of their growth. Because of natural and cultural resources, hospitality is an enormous industry in Western NC, and those business are constantly looking for workers to handle the demand. Healthcare is big everywhere, our area being no exception. Skilled trades, construction—huge demand always and everywhere. Our economy is strong, and growth because of that strength is evident everywhere you turn in western NC.
Edward J. Lopez, Professor of Economics, BB&T Distinguished Professor of Capitalism, & Director, Center for the Study of Free Enterprise, Western Carolina University
C@P: What are your predictions for WNC’s manufacturing industries in 2019 (and beyond)?
EL: Absent a drastic disruption from international trade policy or a big recession, I think we can expect continued growth of medium-scale, high-skilled, and globally-relevant manufacturing in the region, while expanding our unique identity through creative, craft, and artisanal trade.
C@P: What local manufacturing industries do you anticipate will continue to escalate and grow in 2019 and into the 2020s? Why?
EL: With the WNC workforce becoming more knowledge-based, and with international markets becoming more accessible, the horizon will look bright for manufacturing that is heavy on technology and trade, including everything from health, automotive, and intermediate goods.
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see grow in the near and far future? Why?
EL: We’ve seen a big expansion of employment in professional, scientific, and technical services. More population growth and higher incomes will continue to increase the demand for these kinds of services.
Meredith Campbell, Chief Joy Facilitator at Express Employment Professionals
C@P: What are your predictions for WNC’s manufacturing industries in 2019 (and beyond)?
MC: Continued growth. Creative retention ideas trickling through the market through trial and error. Increase in wages for entry and mid-level positions. More flexibility on previous experience requirements/rigidity.
C@P: What local manufacturing industries do you anticipate will continue to escalate and grow in 2019 and into the 2020s? Why?
MC: Advanced manufacturing for sure. There are also some exciting things going on with local and homegrown manufacturers.
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see grow in the near and far future? Why?
MC: Healthcare is always one to watch, considering we’re a retirement and tourist community. At the risk of sounding selfish—exciting things are happening in the recruiting and staffing industry as a result of the tight labor market and the overall cost of a hire (good hire or bad hire)!
Clark S. Duncan, Executive Director & Senior Vice President, Economic Development Coalition for Asheville-Buncombe County
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see grow in the near and far future? Why?
CD: The new class of Venture Asheville Elevate start-ups are a great indicator of things to come for our economy in growth sectors such as technology, food & beverage, outdoor gear and apparel. Elevate is based upon the rigorous M.I.T. Team Mentoring Service and a cornerstone of the Chamber’s commitment to develop and fund the next generation of Asheville-headquartered businesses.
Nathan Ramsey, Director, Mountain Area Workforce Development Board
C@P: Could you share some stats about the growth of manufacturing in recent years?
NR: Our region has experienced strong job growth over the past several years in almost every sector. Advanced manufacturing is currently our leading sector with a net increase of 1,000 jobs in the past 12 months (November 2017-November 2018). Our region is up almost 30,000 since 2009 and almost 20,000 jobs ahead of our 2008 employment peak prior to the Great Recession.
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see grow in the near and far future? Why?
NR: We are seeing a slowdown in job growth over the last few months. It is too early to say if this trend will continue or if it is due to a statistical aberration. Our region continues to have the tightest labor market in NC with over 13,000 open jobs at any one time. Buncombe County has continued to have the lowest unemployment rate of any NC county for 45 consecutive months and our region has continued to have the lowest unemployment rate of any NC metro for 43 consecutive months. Our region is no longer just a tourist town, we have a diversified economy that is driven by Advanced Manufacturing, Healthcare, Hospitality & Tourism, Construction/Skilled Trades, Tech/IT, Professional/Business Services, Logistics with a significant entrepreneurial/small business culture. All of these sectors are driving our region’s economic growth. At this time, I cannot really identify any lagging sectors outside of Information.
Dr. Laura B. Leatherwood, President, Blue Ridge Community College
C@P: What are your predictions for WNC’s manufacturing industries in 2019 (and beyond)?
LL: Strategic partnerships among K-12 schools, higher education institutions, economic development boards, and manufacturing businesses are imperative to address the advanced manufacturing workforce pipeline and perception issues with young people. Through partnerships with K-12 schools and colleges and universities, in particular, manufacturers influence curriculum, provide experiential learning to students, and educate teachers on students’ pathways to success in an ever-changing world.
Molding impressions that may influence career choices, including manufacturing, should begin at an early age (National Association of Manufacturers). Recognizing that STEM education is particularly important during the middle school years, Blue Ridge Community College offers STEM Summer Camps for middle and high school students. Our camps provide fun, introductory workshops on engineering, entrepreneurship, filmmaking, game creation, welding, and more.
As [the] cover story highlighted this month, engineering degrees are needed everywhere, including two-year engineering degrees, as more advanced skills and competencies are needed by our manufacturing employers. According to a recent Gallup/myFutureNC survey, North Carolinians continue to believe that education beyond high school, including a college degree or professional certificate, is a path to a better life for them and their families, but there are concerns about the overall cost and, therefore, access to college. Additionally, nearly 90 percent of North Carolina employers value a community college degree.
I predict that there will be increasing demand from students for an affordable, quality community college education to prepare them for higher paying advanced manufacturing careers—in addition to an increased demand for customized training from manufacturing partners who want to employ and retain high-skilled employees locally.
As an example, Blue Ridge Community College is partnering with Henderson County Public Schools, Henderson County Partnership for Economic Development, Elkamet, GF Linamar, Meritor, and WestRock to launch a new advanced manufacturing apprenticeship program, Made in Henderson County. With no cost to enroll and reimbursed tuition, high school seniors will build their advanced manufacturing skills in our program while working for one of our industry partners and making money immediately out of high school.
Henderson County’s 140 manufacturers employ approximately 5,300 people, representing 15 percent of our workforce, and average wages in excess of $53,000 annually. Programs like Made in Henderson County raise the visibility of advanced manufacturing as a viable, desirable career path to ensure that our students have diverse employment opportunities in the community.
There is a need to change the perception of and re-educate students on what modern manufacturing is in the 21st century. As a recent National Association of Manufacturers report stated, “Manufacturing requires a next generation of skilled workers to make products the world wants, from lifesaving medical technologies to internet-connected products found in homes and cars.”
At Blue Ridge Community College, we help students to become creators and makers of technology through strategic partnerships and work-based learning opportunities—ultimately elevating their futures and meeting the increasing advanced manufacturing workforce needs of Henderson and Transylvania Counties on the region’s path forward.
C@P: What local manufacturing industries do you anticipate will continue to escalate and grow in 2019 and into the 2020s? Why?
LL: Based on training demands and insights from our economic development boards and manufacturing businesses partners, we anticipate advanced manufacturing to continue to grow in Henderson and Transylvania Counties. For this reason, Blue Ridge Community College offers degrees, diplomas, and/or certificates in brewing, computer-integrated machining, electronics engineering, mechanical engineering, mechatronics engineering, and welding technology, among others.
C@P: Outside of manufacturing, are there any other businesses or industries in the region that you’re expecting to see growth in the near and far future? Why?
LL: Henderson County and Transylvania County had increased employment from 2017 to 2018 in sectors like construction and transportation/warehousing in addition to manufacturing (North Carolina Department of Commerce), and we anticipate continued growth in these sectors in the near future. We also expect growth in the health care sector based on increased training demands in the region.
